The best betting tipster in 2026: how to read a tip without being sold one

Updated October 2026

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The phrase “best betting tipster” does a lot of work in a search box. It promises a winner on a plate. What it actually delivers, once a reader starts to look behind the headline, is a small handful of ideas that decide whether any tip is worth following at all: what a tip is, what a value bet is, what the bookmaker’s margin takes out of every price, and what bankroll discipline does to a long losing run. This guide is built around those ideas, in that order, and ends with the ten bookmakers that hold a remote licence from the Gambling Commission and take bets from customers in Great Britain. Nothing on the page promises a winner, and nothing tells a reader who will win. What it offers is the framework a bettor needs to judge one tip against another, and one offer against another, on the day.

Data current as of 27 October 2026, checked against the Gambling Commission’s public register and the operators’ own terms pages.

Live betting and the tip that has to beat a moving price

A tip written in the morning is rarely a tip by half-time. Scores change, players go off injured, the conditions shift, and the price the tipster recommended at 09:00 has either shortened or drifted by the time the whistle goes. Live betting is the part of the market where this matters most, because the bookmaker is repricing the same event as it unfolds and the bettor who placed a pre-match tip now faces a book whose opinion has already moved.

The shape of an in-play market is the same as a pre-match one — a home win, a draw and an away win on the football, a next-game winner in tennis, a four or six in the next over in cricket. The difference is tempo. On a live event the bookmaker can suspend the market at any time, often for a few seconds while it updates the model, and the price that returns is rarely the one the screen showed a moment earlier. A tipster whose edge was a price at 1.85 may find that the live market never returns there, and the bet that looked value at kick-off sits at 1.65 by the time the bettor finds the market again.

That is the practical reason live tips look seductive and rarely work for the bettor who follows them passively. The tipster’s edge, if there was one, was on a snapshot of the market that has since been repriced. A reader who wants to act on a live tip has to do two things the pre-match version did not require: watch the event, and watch the price move with it. Otherwise the bettor is paying the margin on a market that has been re-priced by the people who set it.

This is also where cash out earns its keep, for a different reason. A cash-out button lets a bettor close a position before the event settles, at a price the bookmaker quotes on the spot. The price is not generous, and the bookmaker keeps a slice of true value for the convenience. But the alternative — holding the bet to settlement and hoping the result holds — costs the bettor the price the market is offering right now. On a tip that has gone well early, cash out is the difference between locking in a profit and giving it back on a late goal. On a tip that has gone badly, cash out is the cost of accepting the loss before it gets worse.

What live tips actually move

The market mechanics on a live event are easier to grasp if a reader separates three things: the event itself, the model’s view of it, and the bookmaker’s margin layered on top. The event is the football, the tennis match, the cricket over. The model is the bookmaker’s probability estimate, recalculated as the game goes on. The margin is the cut the bookmaker keeps no matter what happens, expressed in the prices the bettor sees.

A live tip that “moves” the price is usually a tip that the model has already incorporated by the time the bettor reads it. The price drop a tipster boasts about, the one that justified the call, often happens before the tip is published rather than after. The bettor who arrives at the live market a few minutes behind the tip is buying at the post-tip price, not the pre-tip one.

The honest reading is that live tips are a tougher proposition than the morning paper makes them sound. Not impossible — a tipster with a real edge, on a market the model has mispriced for a window, exists. But rarer than the marketing copy suggests, and the reader who treats a live tip as a free option to bet on the unfolding game is treating a probabilistic call as a forecast. A live event can still surprise, and it can still produce a price the model has not yet caught up with. The bettor’s job is to look for the gap, not the certainty.

Cash out, in plain terms

Cash out is the bookmaker quoting a settlement price on an open bet while the event is still running. The price reflects the current state of the market and a slice of the bookmaker’s edge for settling early. Two practical points follow.

The first is that cash out favours the bookmaker in aggregate, because the slice it keeps on every early settlement is part of the margin the bookmaker has already built in. The bettor who cashes out at break-even on a tip that would have lost is paying the bookmaker for a loss-avoidance service. The bettor who cashes out at a small profit on a tip that would have won bigger is paying the bookmaker for the certainty.

The second is that cash out is a tool, not a rule. Some bettors use it on accumulators where one leg has gone wrong and the rest look shaky. Some use it on singles when the game state has flipped in a way the tipster did not predict. The bettor who uses it on every bet, every time, hands the bookmaker a steady cut of their winnings for no good reason. The bettor who uses it in a narrow set of situations — protecting a profit, capping a loss on a multi — gets something more like what the button advertises.

A live tip with a cash-out button beside it is still just a bet. The bookmaker’s button is the convenience charge, the live price is the tipster’s claim, and the settlement is whatever the event produces. None of the three turns a tip into a forecast.

Building a tip from the ground up: form, statistics, line-ups and price

A tip is a forecast, dressed up or dressed down, of what will happen in an event. The honest kind is built from the same ingredients the bookmaker’s model uses, and the dishonest kind pretends to be built from ingredients it does not actually have. The difference is in the work, not the writing.

Form is the recent record: how the team or the player has been performing in the last few matches, at home and away, against similar opposition, with the players available. Form is the most over-claimed ingredient in tipster marketing, because it is the easiest to wave at without actually using. A reader who sees a tipster cite “form” without saying which matches, which dates, which players, has not been given form. They have been given the word.

Statistics are the numbers underneath form. Expected goals, shots on target, possession adjusted for opposition, conversion rates, serve percentages held, first-innings scores, racecourse going. The data exists for most major sports and most major leagues, and a tipster who cites a stat without naming the source and the date is asking the reader to take the number on trust. Statistics do not age well — a stat from twelve months ago is a different stat from the same number today — and a tipster who does not say when the figure was current is either cutting corners or hiding them.

Line-ups are what change the model most, and the latest they are confirmed the more a tip built on them is worth. A team sheet published an hour before kick-off is a fresh input; a team sheet published the night before is a guess for a third of the squad. The tipster who waits for the line-up and then publishes has a window. The tipster who publishes at 09:00 for a 15:00 kick-off is publishing a tip built on a line-up that may no longer be the one that plays.

The bookmaker’s own price is the fourth ingredient, and the one most often left out of a tipster’s pitch. The bookmaker’s price is a probability estimate plus the margin. To turn the price into a probability the bettor has to do one piece of arithmetic: divide one by the decimal odds. A price of 2.00 implies a 50% chance, 1.50 implies a 67% chance, 3.00 implies a 33% chance. A tip that says “I make this a 60% chance” is a tip the bettor can compare to the price the market is offering. If the market is at 1.50, implying 67%, the bettor’s 60% is below the market and the tip is no value. If the market is at 2.00, implying 50%, the bettor’s 60% is above and the tip is value at that price.

That last step is the one a tipster rarely performs on the reader’s behalf, because it is the step that decides whether the tip is worth following. The pitch is the prediction. The price check is the editorial.

What value really means, and what it costs

A value bet is a bet placed at a price that is higher than the true probability of the outcome, after the bookmaker’s margin has been taken out. Two things follow from that definition, and both matter.

The first is that a value bet is not the same as a winning bet. A bet can be value at 1.50 and still lose nine times out of ten. The bet is value because the price the market is offering is higher than the probability the bettor estimates. Whether the bet wins is a separate question, decided by the event, not by the arithmetic. A bettor who treats value and outcome as the same thing will lose patience with value betting inside a month, because losing runs of value bets are statistically normal.

The second is that a value bet needs a number the bettor believes more than the number the bookmaker believes. The bookmaker’s model is built on data the bettor usually does not have, and the margin is layered on top. To beat the model the bettor has to find an input the model has missed, or weight an input the model has underweighted. That is a hard thing to do consistently, and the bettor who claims they can do it on a tip sheet is asking the reader to take their edge on trust.

This is also where staking comes in. A value bet at 1.20 with a true probability of 85% still loses 15% of the time. A flat stake of 5% of the bank on every value bet will wipe out the bank inside a bad run. A flat stake of 1% will survive the same run. Staking is the discipline that turns a probabilistic edge into a long-term profit, and the bettor who finds an edge and then overstakes it has given the edge back to the margin.

The bookmaker’s margin, seen in the prices

The margin is the cut the bookmaker keeps out of every market, no matter which outcome wins. The standard way to see it is to convert every price in a market to an implied probability, add the probabilities, and express the total as a percentage. The amount by which this total exceeds 100% is the margin. On a coin-toss market with both sides priced at 1.91, the implied probabilities add to 104.7%, and the margin is 4.5%. On a three-way football match priced at 2.10 / 3.40 / 3.50, the implied probabilities are 47.6%, 29.4% and 28.6%, totalling 105.6%, and the margin is 5.3%.

The margin is the reason two bookmakers can quote the same event at different prices. One is taking 4% of every pound bet, the other is taking 6%, and the difference is the difference in what a winning bet returns to the customer. A tipster who points the reader at a market without saying what margin that market carries is asking the reader to bet on a market whose true cost is hidden in the prices.

The work in this guide is an illustrative example. Take a two-way market priced at 1.90 / 1.90, the kind of price a bookmaker might quote on an even tennis match or a close game with no draw. The implied probability on each side is one divided by 1.90, which is 52.63%. Add the two sides and the total implied probability is 105.26%, and the margin — the bookmaker’s take on every pound bet — is 5.26% across the market. The result is a band: a market priced at 1.90 / 1.90 carries a margin in the region of 5%, give or take a fraction. That is the slice of every pound that does not return to the bettor no matter which side wins, and the slice a tip has to beat if it is to be a value bet.

A reader who wants to check the margin on any market they see can do the arithmetic in a few seconds. Take every price on the market, divide one by each, add the results, and subtract from 100%. The number left is what the bookmaker keeps. A margin of 2-3% is a sharp bookmaker’s market, a margin of 5-6% is standard, and a margin above 8% is a market the bettor should look at twice before placing a bet. The price that looks generous is sometimes the price whose generosity has already been spent on the margin.

The ten bookmakers that take a bet in Great Britain

The list below is the ten operators whose licences are on the Gambling Commission’s public register for remote general betting on real events. A place on the list is not a ranking and not a recommendation. Each write-up is what the operator’s own terms and app store presence state, plus a verdict on what the brand is and is not for.

NetBet

NetBet’s app offers Daily Boosts, Profit Boosts and free bet offers, a Bet Builder with instant dynamic odds, and sports statistics for the major leagues. The licence on the Commission register is account 39170, held by Netbet Enterprises Limited, with the .co.uk site listed against it.

A bookmaker whose app puts the price boosts and the bet builder on the front page is a bookmaker for the bettor who already knows which market they want and wants to get there quickly. The bet builder’s “instant dynamic odds” claim is worth taking literally — the price moves as the selections are added, which means the bettor who watches the price move before confirming is reading the margin on the combination as it is built. A bettor who confirms without watching is taking whatever price the slip settles on.

Verdict. A reasonable fit for an accumulator bettor who wants price boosts and a fast bet builder. The book is not where a tip follower looking for racing or niche markets will find their best week.

BetVictor

BetVictor offers Best Odds Guaranteed on UK and Irish horse racing, enhanced live race streaming, a BetFinder feature for finding racing bets, and Smart Stats. The app combines a sportsbook with an online casino. The licence is account 39576, held by BV Gaming Limited, with the .com site listed. The group also operates talkSPORT BET, which runs alongside BetVictor with enhanced odds, a bet builder and win, each-way and forecast bets on football, horse racing, greyhounds, tennis and boxing and MMA.

Best Odds Guaranteed is the feature the racing bettor cares about. A bet placed the evening before on a horse at 5/1 pays out at 5/1 if the horse starts at that price or longer, and at the starting price if the SP is bigger. The bettor does not need to take the morning price; the bettor takes the bigger of the two. Combined with live streaming and the racing-specific Smart Stats and BetFinder, BetVictor is a brand built around the racing market rather than the football market.

Verdict. The brand for the bettor whose week is shaped by the racing calendar. Football and the other sports are present, but the racing infrastructure is what BetVictor has spent on.

DragonBet

DragonBet offers cash out both in-play and pre-match, and live streaming of racing. The licence is account 64908, held by DragonBet Ltd, with the .co.uk site listed. The brand presents itself as a racing-led bookmaker, and the cash-out coverage on racing and football is what its app store page leads with.

A bookmaker that pairs in-play cash out with racing streaming is positioned for the bettor who backs horses through the day and wants a sportsbook on the same account for the evening. The cash-out button is the same mechanic as on any other bookmaker — the bookmaker quotes a settlement price, the bettor takes it or leaves it. What matters is the depth of markets the cash-out is offered on, and racing and football are where DragonBet’s offer is densest.

Verdict. A small-press bookmaker with the racing and football markets a typical punter needs and a thin book elsewhere. Useful as a second account for racing rather than a primary sportsbook.

Bar One Racing

Bar One Racing has rebranded as BAR 1 Betting, an Irish independent bookmaker with shops across Ireland and horse racing sponsorships at Dundalk, Fairyhouse, Navan, The Curragh, Curraheen Park and Cork. The licence is account 56516, held by Bar-One Racing Limited, with the .com site listed.

A bookmaker whose identity is its Irish shop footprint and its racecourse sponsorships is a brand for the bettor who bets Irish racing and values the local connections. The shops are the proof that the brand is what it says it is. The remote product is the same product any GB-licensed bookmaker offers, and the bettor who is not betting on Irish racing will find a thinner book on the rest of the calendar.

Verdict. A natural fit for the bettor whose weekend is the Irish racing programme. Outside Irish racing the book is standard and the racing-led feel is no advantage.

Sky Bet

Sky Bet’s welcome offer for new customers is £30 in free bets, credited as three £10 free bet tokens after a deposit of at least £5 and a first single or each-way bet of at least 5p at odds of 1/1 or greater. The licence is account 67370, held by SBG Sports Limited, with the .com site listed.

The welcome offer is a familiar shape: a small qualifying bet unlocks a free-bet package, and the qualifying bet is the bet the customer has to place to get the rest. The minimum odds of 1/1 — decimal 2.00 — rule out a wager on a heavy favourite as the qualifying bet. The three £10 free bets are a familiar split, and the free-bet stake is usually not paid back with a winning free bet. A reader should check the terms on the Sky Bet support page before claiming, because the conditions on which markets and which odds the free bets can be used are where the offer’s real cost lives.

Verdict. A mainstream GB sportsbook with the welcome offer shaped to fit the way Sky Bet’s existing customers already bet. A reasonable fit for a customer who would be betting with Sky Bet anyway and treats the free bets as a bonus on the bet they were going to place.

Fitzdares

The Fitzdares app offers cash out, accumulators, Lucky 15s, specials and antepost markets on horse racing, football, tennis, rugby, cricket, golf and American football, with in-play live odds. The licence is account 400, held by Fitzdares Limited, with the .com site listed.

A bookmaker whose market list includes antepost, specials and Lucky 15s is a brand for the bettor who bets the antepost markets in the weeks before a festival and builds Lucky 15s across the day. The antepost book is what most separates one bookmaker from another in racing, because the prices the bookmaker takes weeks before the event are the prices the bettor is locking in. The cash-out button on a Lucky 15 is the same convenience-versus-margin trade as on a single, and the trade is sharper on a multi because the price the bookmaker quotes covers the whole combination.

Verdict. A premium-positioned bookmaker with a depth of market on racing and on the antepost side that suits a bettor who plans their bets across a season rather than a week. The premium positioning shows in the price on the everyday markets, where the margin can be wider than at a sharp bookmaker.

BetMGM

BetMGM’s sports welcome offer for new UK customers who deposit £10 or more and place a sports bet within 7 days is four £10 free bets: two football accumulators of four or more selections and two sports multiples of two or more, valid for 7 days with minimum odds and opt-in required. The licence is account 39198, held by LeoVegas Gaming PLC, with the .co.uk site listed.

A welcome offer that splits the free bets across accumulators is an offer whose value depends on the customer using the free bets on accumulators at all. A bettor who bets singles will find the structure awkward, and the free bets will expire unused. A bettor who builds accumulators will find the structure a reasonable fit. The seven-day window is the practical deadline, and a bettor who claims the offer and then takes a week off will not benefit from it.

Verdict. A mainstream sportsbook with a welcome offer shaped for the accumulator bettor. A bettor who bets singles should weigh the offer against a brand whose welcome package is single-friendly, because the value of an offer the customer cannot use is zero.

Betfred

Betfred’s app features Bet Builder, Sub Switch, Racing Post data, Extra Places, live casino and bingo. The licence is account 39544, held by Petfre (Gibraltar) Limited, with the .com site listed. Sub Switch is a feature that lets a bettor replace a player in a bet builder if the original selection withdraws, and Extra Places adds extra places to each-way terms on selected races.

A bookmaker whose name is on the high street pairs the sportsbook with a casino and a bingo product on the same app, and the bettor who wants sports and casino under one roof has both. Sub Switch is the feature for the bettor who builds bet builders on football and worries about late withdrawals. Extra Places is the feature for the each-way racing bettor who wants the extra place on a big-field handicap.

Verdict. A high-street name with the product depth of a high-street bookmaker. A solid fit for a customer who bets a mix of football, racing and casino and values the high-street identity of the brand.

Unibet

Unibet’s sports welcome offer is “Get £40 in Free Bets when you bet £20”: a deposit and sports bet of £20 or more at minimum odds of 2.0 (1/1), with free bets expiring within 7 days of issue, for new GB customers using a debit card or instant bank transfer. The licence is account 45322, held by Platinum Gaming Limited, with the .co.uk site listed. Unibet states it has operated since 1999, and the brand offers Bet Builder, daily Uniboosts, live streaming through Unibet TV, in-play betting, Best Odds Guaranteed on horse racing and Cash Out on thousands of markets. The safer-gambling tools include deposit limits, a Player Profile test, product restrictions and self-exclusion, with live chat support and links to BeGambleAware, GamCare, GAMSTOP, Gambling Therapy and the BGC.

The welcome offer is the standard shape: a £20 qualifying bet at 1/1 or greater unlocks £40 in free bets, with the free bets expiring inside a week. The payment-method restriction — debit card or instant bank transfer — is a smaller detail that matters to a bettor whose usual deposit is an e-wallet or a credit-card-funded payment. The safer-gambling toolset is the fuller-than-most list, and a bettor who wants a brand with a clear set of self-management options has them on Unibet.

Verdict. A long-established bookmaker with a deep sportsbook, a streaming product, and a safer-gambling toolset that is wider than the average. A solid fit for a bettor who wants a mainstream brand and a reasonable fit for a customer who values the self-management options on the account.

QuinnBet

QuinnBet free bets are valid for 7 days from credit and can be used on any market at odds of 1/2 (1.5) or greater, with maximum odds of 50/1. Straight accumulators are allowed, but Trixies, Patents and Yankees are not. The licence is account 61011, held by QuinnBet (Gibraltar) Limited, with the .com site listed.

The free-bet terms are the kind of terms a reader should look at before claiming. The minimum odds of 1/2 rule out a wager on a very short favourite, the maximum odds of 50/1 cap the upside on a long shot, and the exclusion of combination bets means a free bet cannot be used on a Lucky 15 or a Yankee. A bettor who bets singles and short-priced favourites will find the terms a reasonable fit. A bettor who builds combination bets will find the free bets limited to the single-leg markets.

Verdict. A bookmaker whose free-bet terms reward the single-bet, short-odds customer and exclude the combination-bet customer. A reasonable fit for a bettor whose book is singles and who reads the small print before claiming.

The fundamentals of tipping: what every tip is built on

The fundamentals are the same for a free tip, a paid tip, and a tip the bettor builds themselves. The list is short and it is the same in any sport.

Form is the recent record, the matches and the runs that show what the team or the player has been doing. Statistics are the numbers underneath form, the xG and the serve percentages and the strike rates. Line-ups are the players who actually play, confirmed late. The bookmaker’s price is the probability estimate plus the margin, and the bettor’s edge is the gap between the two.

A tip that has all four is a tip worth following. A tip that has none of them is a tip with nothing to test. A tip that has form and statistics but no line-up is a tip built on a team sheet that may have changed. A tip that has form, statistics and line-up but no price check is a tip that has not been turned into a bet. A tip that has all four and the bettor’s edge is a smaller margin than the bookmaker’s is a tip the bettor should leave on the page.

The bettor who treats the four fundamentals as a checklist, rather than as a marketing pitch, has done most of the work a tipster claims to do. The remaining work is the discipline of staking, the patience to lose, and the honesty to admit a tip was wrong.

The legal frame for tipping and betting in Great Britain

The legal frame for the bettor is short, and the Gambling Commission’s public register is the whole test of who holds a licence. The bookmakers above are all on the register, against the account numbers in the write-ups. A reader who wants to check any of them can search the register by business name, trading name, domain or account number.

The framework is the Gambling Act 2005, which covers Great Britain. Since the Gambling (Licensing and Advertising) Act 2014 an operator whose remote facilities are used in Great Britain needs a Commission licence wherever it is based. A Curaçao, Maltese or Gibraltar licence is not a substitute, and a brand offering bets to a customer in Great Britain without a Commission licence is breaking section 33 of the 2005 Act. The Commission’s enforcement is disruption rather than blocking — cease-and-desist notices, search-engine referrals, work with registrars, hosts and payment providers — and the bettor who uses an unlicensed site loses the protections a GB licence provides.

The protections are the things a licensed site must do. Credit cards have been banned for gambling in Great Britain since 14 April 2020, including credit-card-funded payments through an e-wallet. The minimum age is 18, and identity is verified before a customer can deposit or gamble. GAMSTOP is the national multi-operator online self-exclusion scheme, and a mandatory licence condition for online operators since 31 March 2020. The financial vulnerability check applies when a customer’s deposits minus withdrawals exceed £150 in a rolling 30 days: it is a public-record check, not an income check. The promotion rules in force since 19 January 2026 cap wagering requirements on bonuses at 10x and ban mixed-product promotions. None of these are claims an unlicensed site can make.

The bettor’s tax position is simple. There is no tax on betting winnings in Great Britain for the recreational bettor. General Betting Duty is the operator’s tax on gross profits, and the rate does not reach the customer.

Responsible gambling: where a tip meets its limit

A tip is a forecast of a sporting event. The bet is a stake on that forecast. The bettor who treats a tip as income has crossed a line that the tip cannot undo.

The safer-gambling tools on a licensed site are the practical limits. Deposit limits are the customer’s choice, set in the account, and the bookmaker’s job is to honour them. Time-out is a short break, GAMSTOP is a longer one, and self-exclusion is the strongest. The financial vulnerability check is the system’s check on the customer whose deposits have run ahead of their withdrawals. The Player Profile test on Unibet, the deposit limits and the self-exclusion on the other brands are the same kind of tool, named differently.

The help services are GamCare, which runs the National Gambling Helpline, GambleAware, the NHS gambling clinics, and Gamblers Anonymous. A bettor who feels the betting has stopped being a forecast and started being a need has a route to a real conversation, and the route is one search away.

The honest end of a guide on tipping is that no tip is certain, no value bet is a guarantee, no bankroll discipline removes the risk of loss, and no bookmaker’s offer changes the arithmetic. A bettor who reads the page, follows the four fundamentals, sizes the stakes at a level they can afford to lose, and walks away from the bad days has done the work the page can do for them. The rest is the event.

Frequently asked questions

How do you become a betting tipster?

A tipster is someone who publishes a forecast on a sporting event with a reasoning behind it. The bettor who wants to become a tipster can start with a sport they follow closely, a notebook of predictions and a record of how each one settled. The record is the part that matters, because it is what a reader of the tip can check. A tipster without a record is a tipster on trust, and trust in this market is a thin asset.

Who is the best betting tipster?

No single tipster is the best across all sports, all markets and all conditions. Some have built records in one sport or one market, and the bettor who wants a tip should look for the record in the sport they bet on. The market’s own prices are a useful benchmark: a tipster whose picks consistently beat the implied probability on the bookmaker’s price is producing value, and a tipster whose picks do not is producing noise.

What is a tipster in betting?

A tipster in betting is a person who offers a prediction on the outcome of a sporting event, often with a recommended stake and a recommended price. The tip is a forecast, not a guarantee, and the bookmaker’s margin is built into every price the tip is compared against. A tipster’s value is the gap between their forecast and the market’s price, judged over many predictions rather than one.

What is a value bet and why is no tip ever certain?

A value bet is a bet placed at a price higher than the bettor’s estimate of the true probability, after the bookmaker’s margin has been taken out. A tip is never certain because every sporting event has uncertainty built into it, and the price the bettor takes is a probability, not a promise. A value bet can still lose, and a losing value bet is not a contradiction — it is the normal cost of a probabilistic edge.

What is the bookmaker’s margin and how can it be seen in the odds?

The bookmaker’s margin is the cut the bookmaker keeps out of every market, expressed in the prices. To see it, the bettor divides one by each price on the market, adds the results, and subtracts from 100%. The number left is the margin. A market priced at 1.90 / 1.90 carries a margin in the region of 5%, give or take a fraction, and a tip has to beat that margin to be a value bet.

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