Ante-post betting explained: rules, returns and the bookmakers who take the bet

Updated October 2026

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Ante-post betting sits at the slow end of the betting market. The runner has not been declared, the going is weeks away and the price can move a long way between the morning you back a horse and the afternoon it walks onto the course. That window is the point: the longer the wait, the wider the odds, and the bigger the question of what happens to your stake if the horse never runs. Most of the rules on this page exist because of that gap.

In Great Britain the bet itself is unregulated in the sense that no statute names it. What the statute does is require any operator taking bets from customers in Great Britain to hold a Gambling Commission remote licence, and offers the marketing rules every bonus on a licensed site has to clean. The mechanics of an ante-post bet — when it pays, when it loses, when it voids — are the operator’s. They differ in details from brand to brand, but a core shape runs through all of them and is the one this page lays out.

This is also the page that runs the comparative arithmetic of an ante-post price: what it pays, what the bookmaker takes from it, and what Rule 4, balloting and non-runners do to a settled return. The figures are not predictions of any race; they are illustrations of how the market is built. The operators reviewed are the ones that hold a Gambling Commission remote licence for real-event betting, and the licence is the test of who may lawfully take the bet.

*Current as of 27 October 2026. Operator licence claims checked against the Gambling Commission’s public register.*

The statute behind the bet

Ante-post betting is a market, not a statutory category. The Gambling Act 2005 covers Great Britain — England, Scotland and Wales — and licences them under the Gambling Commission, a non-departmental public body sponsored by the Department for Culture, Media and Sport. Northern Ireland is outside that Act and runs on its own older law; a GB licence does not extend there, and an operator marketing into Northern Ireland needs the separate regime.

Since the Gambling (Licensing and Advertising) Act 2014 an operator whose remote facilities are used in Great Britain needs a Commission licence wherever it sits — Malta, Gibraltar, the Isle of Man, Curaçao. None of those home licences substitutes. The Commission’s public register lists every holder and the categories they are licensed for; a search by business name, trading name, domain or account number is the whole test of who is licensed.

Licence categories matter more than the headline “remote betting licence”. Real-event sports betting runs under remote general betting standard (real events). Virtual sports are a separate category. Pool betting on horse and dog racing is a separate licence. A betting exchange sits under remote betting intermediary, a different set of conditions again. An ante-post market on a horse race sits inside real-event general betting; the rules that govern it are the operator’s, not the Commission’s. Financial spread betting is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, not by the Commission.

Age and identity are the bright lines. Minimum age 18 across Great Britain. Since 7 May 2019 every licensed remote operator has verified the customer’s name, address and date of birth before they can deposit or gamble, and a free bet or bonus does not get the customer past that gate. The bet may be ante-post; the verification is not. Identity before stake is the rule.

What may be bet on

No statute lists permitted or prohibited markets. An operator holds a licence for a category and offers markets under its own rules and the Licence Conditions and Codes of Practice (LCCP). In-play betting on real events sits under the same general-betting (real events) licence; the controls are operator-side. Esports sit inside general betting as a real event. Virtual events are a separate licence category. Politics, TV and novelty markets are offered by GB bookmakers and no statutory prohibition was found. A market that exists at a licensed operator is, by definition, one the operator has decided it will run and that the LCCP does not block.

Bonuses, marketing and the 10x rule

Wagering requirements on bonuses are capped at 10x since 19 January 2026: a £10 bonus at 50x wagering needed £500 of qualifying bets before withdrawal; under the cap no more than £100. Mixed-product promotions — an offer that ties betting to casino, bingo, lottery or any other product — are banned. Free bets with no wagering condition sit at the edge of that rule and the Commission’s published position on them is not finalised.

Advertising is licensed separately, through the ASA under the CAP Code (non-broadcast) and BCAP Code (broadcast), alongside the LCCP marketing conditions. CAP Code section 16 holds that marketing must be socially responsible and must not be of strong appeal to under-18s; nobody who is or seems to be under 25 may feature gambling or play a significant role, with an exception for marketing placed where a bet can be placed directly. That rule is about who appears in the ad, not who may bet. The “whistle-to-whistle” TV ban since 1 August 2019 covers live sporting events from five minutes before kick-off to five minutes after, before the 9pm watershed, with horse and greyhound racing excluded.

Tax

The player pays no tax on betting winnings in Great Britain. General Betting Duty is the operator’s tax on gross profits, currently 15% on most categories; from 1 April 2027 a new remote betting rate of 25% applies within it, with remote bets on UK horse racing, pool betting, self-service terminal bets and in-person bets staying at 15%. Whether operators pass duty on through tighter odds is not established either way, and the duty is never the player’s bill.

The unlicensed alternative

Providing gambling facilities in Great Britain without the licence the Act requires is an offence under section 33 of the Gambling Act 2005, aimed at the operator. No offence aimed at a customer who merely bets on an unlicensed site was found in statute, and honest framing matters: licensed sites mean identity checks, GAMSTOP coverage, the £150 vulnerability check threshold, the 10x bonus cap and access to the Commission’s dispute route; unlicensed sites mean none of those protections and the risk that withheld funds have nowhere to go. Enforcement against unlicensed operators is disruption — cease-and-desist, search-engine referrals, registrar and payment-provider work — and court-order DNS blocking powers have been granted or are about to be. ISP-level blocking is not in operation today.

Player protection: the rules that bite before the bet does

Ante-post betting is a long game. A bet placed today may settle in months. Between those two moments the rules that protect the customer matter more than usual, because the customer cannot simply walk away from a position they have already taken.

GAMSTOP is the national multi-operator online self-exclusion scheme and a mandatory licence condition for every online operator since 31 March 2020. Periods are six months, one year, five years or five years with auto-renewal, and after the minimum period the exclusion stays in place for a further seven years unless the customer asks GAMSTOP to remove it. It covers online sites and apps; betting shops run their own service.

Financial Vulnerability Check (LCCP 3.4.4, in force since 30 August 2024) applies to licensed remote betting when a customer’s deposits minus withdrawals exceed £150 in a rolling 30 days; from 28 February 2025 that threshold has applied to a fresh check. The check is a public-record one — bankruptcy, county court judgments, the published registers — not an income check and not a credit reference check.

Financial Risk Assessments — what the press calls affordability checks — were announced on a staged plan in a Commission article of 7 July 2026 with no start date. State them as announced, staged, no start date, never as in force.

Deposit limits under RTS 12: operators must offer a gross deposit limit on a fixed time frame; the first changes applied from 31 October 2025, a second phase was postponed to 30 September 2026, and whether that second phase is live is not established. There is no state-set ceiling — the limit is the customer’s choice.

Help sits outside the licence. GamCare runs the National Gambling Helpline; GambleAware funds treatment and education; the NHS runs gambling clinics; Gamblers Anonymous runs meetings. None of them is the operator. Ante-post betting that runs for months is one of the categories where a self-imposed limit is worth setting before the first bet, because the moment the bet is on, the position is on too.

Predictions and strategy: what an ante-post price actually reflects

Ante-post betting is not a forecasting exercise. The price the bookmaker offers weeks before the race is built from the same ingredients as the price on the morning of the race — the market’s view of each horse’s chance — with one extra: a margin that gets larger the further out you bet, because the uncertainty over declaration, going and fitness is wider.

The “strategy” content around ante-post betting is mostly a list of ways to manage that gap. Three honest rules come up again and again.

Shop the price the morning the runner is declared, not the evening you first fancied it. Ante-post prices move on stable news, on a published declaration, on a piece of trainer form. A bet placed at 16/1 three months out is often the same horse at 10/1 the week of the race, and the £6 difference per £1 staked is not a return on insight but a fee for early certainty.

Know what you are paying for the non-runner cover. A bookmaker offering 9/2 in the morning market will almost always take the bet on the same horse at 6/1 ante-post. That gap is the premium for non-runner cover — and the cover only matters if the horse is balloted out. If the horse runs, the premium is gone. If the horse does not run, the stake is lost under the standard ante-post rule.

Treat an ante-post accumulator as a different product from a day-of accumulator. A non-runner in an ante-post single voids it; a non-runner in an ante-post accumulator removes that leg and the bet runs on the remaining legs at the original prices, so a treble becomes a double. The bet does not collapse to the worst-case payout, and it does not survive as a treble on three horses when one of them never lined up.

The honest summary is that no ante-post system wins on its own. The categories cited are bankroll management, market timing and an understanding that the longer the wait, the wider the swing.

Bet types and odds: the market shapes an ante-post bet takes

An ante-post bet is one of a small set of shapes, and each shape interacts with non-runner rules differently.

Ante-post single. One selection, one stake, settled at the price at placement (so a 10/1 bet that shortens to 5/1 by race day still pays 10/1). The horse does not run: the bet loses, stake gone.

Ante-post each-way. Two equal-stake bets: one on the win, one on the place. Each-way is a paid feature on most ante-post markets; the place terms vary by race and operator. A non-runner voids the whole each-way bet, both halves.

Ante-post accumulator (acca). Two or more selections in one bet, prices multiplying. A non-runner in one leg reduces the acca to the remaining legs at original prices; a non-runner in every leg voids the bet. A four-fold with one non-runner becomes a treble; a treble with two non-runners becomes a single; a single non-runner voids the bet.

Place-only, conditional and forecast bets are not accepted on ante-post markets at the operators whose rules the page has read. Each-way is the closest the ante-post market gets to a place bet.

Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG) is the most consequential exception to the price-at-placement rule — and it does not apply ante-post. William Hill pays BOG on UK and Irish racing from 8 AM on the day of the race on singles and multiples, and explicitly excludes ante-post, tote and pari-mutuel bets. Copybet offers BOG all day, every day, on all UK and Irish racing, and pays first past the post on horse racing even where the winner is later disqualified — the BOG position there applies to non-ante-post markets. The rule for ante-post is the opposite: the price you took is the price you get, regardless of how the morning market has moved.

Odds formats

British bookmakers write prices in fractions (5/1, 11/4, evens) and in decimals (6.00, 3.75). Decimal odds convert from fractional a/b as a÷b+1; 5/1 = 6.00, 11/4 = 3.75, evens = 2.00. A price shorter than evens is “odds-on”. Decimal odds make the return calculation mechanical: return = stake × decimal odds; net profit = stake × (decimal odds − 1). The return on a £10 stake at 6.00 is £60; the net profit is £50. For a combination bet the prices of the legs multiply into one decimal price.

The margin inside every price

A bookmaker’s margin — sometimes called overround — is the share of every unit staked that the book keeps, on average, across all outcomes of one market. For a two-way market with decimal odds 1.90 / 1.90 the implied probabilities are 1/1.90 + 1/1.90 = 0.5263 + 0.5263 = 1.0526, so the payout share is 1/1.0526 ≈ 0.9500 and the margin is 1 − 0.9500 = 0.0500, or 5.0%. The headline numbers — 95% back, 5% margin — are the same market seen from two sides, and they belong to the same calculation. State the result as a band with its condition: an illustrative two-way market at 1.90/1.90 carries a 5% margin, and the published margin in a real ante-post market drifts wider the further out the bet is, because the book is hedging more uncertainty. That drift is the premium paid for non-runner cover, expressed in the price rather than as a separate fee.

How an ante-post bet works in practice

The lifecycle of an ante-post bet runs from selection to settlement in five stages, and each stage has a rule that binds.

Selection. The bet is placed at least a day before the race — Sky Bet’s published wording is that bets placed at least a day before a horse race are treated as ante-post. Some operators extend the cutoff to the morning of the race; some use the morning of declaration. The price at placement is the price at settlement unless the bet voids.

Declaration. The horse is declared a runner. The bet continues to the race. If the horse is balloted out at this stage — declared but then withdrawn because the field is oversubscribed — the bet continues to the race under the standard ante-post rule: a non-runner loses, stake not returned, unless the operator’s house rules say otherwise.

Race-day non-runner. A horse is taken out at the racecourse. The bet loses, stake gone. This is the rule that distinguishes ante-post from day-of betting, where a non-runner usually voids the bet with the stake returned.

In-running. The bet is on or off depending on the result. There is no ante-post in-play market — the bet is settled at the result of the race. Cash out is offered on some ante-post markets and settles on the live price the operator publishes mid-race or, on a non-race day, on the price the operator publishes when the market is suspended.

Settlement. The bet is settled at the price at placement. Void conditions are narrow: the race is abandoned, or the race is moved to a different track. Anything else — a horse taken out, a horse that finishes but is later disqualified, a horse that runs in a different race on the card — does not void the bet.

The single hardest fact to internalise is the non-runner rule. A non-runner voids the bet in the day-of market and loses the bet in the ante-post market, and the difference between those two outcomes is the entire fee for placing the bet early. The price is wider because the cover is thinner.

The ranker: ten UK-licensed operators reviewed on ante-post coverage

Every brand below holds a Gambling Commission remote licence for real-event general betting, and the licence number is shown against each operator. The page does not rank one above another; it lays out what each offers on ante-post, what each carries on the rules that govern non-runners and Rule 4, and what each costs in the betting margin the operator takes on the markets it offers. A brand that holds the licence is the test of who may lawfully take the bet from a customer in Great Britain; what sits on top of that licence is the operator’s choice.

Fitzdares

Fitzdares markets itself as a premium bookmaker and the published premium list is the ante-post range: horse racing, football, tennis, rugby, cricket, golf and American football, with cash out, accumulators, Lucky 15s and specials. In-play live odds sit on the rest of the menu. The licence is held by Fitzdares Limited against Commission account 400.

The non-runner rule at Fitzdares follows the published market norm: an ante-post single on a non-runner loses the stake, and an ante-post accumulator with a non-runner continues on the remaining legs at the price at placement. The brand’s premium positioning comes through on the specials — race-specific markets, jockey specials and meeting-specific promotions — and the ante-post coverage on horse racing is the deepest in the list.

Worth it for the bettor whose ante-post book is horse-racing-heavy and who values the specials around Cheltenham or Ascot. For the casual punter, the menu is broad, though the pricing structure prioritises high-volume turnover.

Tote

Tote is a pool product, not a fixed-odds book. The ante-post market at Tote sits inside the pool, with the dividend declared after the race; the price at placement is a unit stake in the pool, not a price-per-unit. The licence is held by TDCO Limited against Commission account 54779.

The Tote’s ante-post position is shaped by the pool itself: the dividend depends on the pool size, on the winners taken out and on the place terms. A non-runner in the pool reduces the pool but does not void the unit. A Rule 4 deduction does not apply — the deduction is a fixed-odds bookmaker rule. The published product is honest about the shape: it is a pool, with pool rules.

Worth it for the bettor who treats the ante-post market as a long-odds pool with the dividend declared at the end. Less so than a fixed-odds book for the bettor who wants the price locked at placement.

Geoff Banks

Geoff Banks Online is published by GB Sports Advisors Limited, and the brand sells itself as an advisor-led product with live in-play prices and ante-post prices on future events. The licence is held by GB Sports Advisors Limited against Commission account 54095.

The ante-post menu at Geoff Banks is built around the brand’s advisory angle: a future-events market laid alongside form, tips and a published position on each runner. The price is set by the operator, the Rule 4 deductions apply under the standard fixed-odds bookmaker rules, and a non-runner voids an ante-post single. The advisory overlay is the brand’s distinctive feature — the market is laid in the same place as the tip, and the customer can act on the tip without leaving the page.

Worth it for the bettor who wants the ante-post market framed by a published position on each runner. Less so than a pure fixed-odds book for the bettor who reads form independently and wants a clean price.

Lottoland

Lottoland’s UK product is built around lottery betting, scratchcards and casino, with a sportsbook added on the side. The licence is held by EU Lotto Limited against Commission account 38991, and the sportsbook is a smaller fraction of the brand’s product than at the rest of the list.

The ante-post position at Lottoland is shaped by that: horse racing and football carry ante-post markets, the wider ante-post menu is thin, and the brand’s appeal on ante-post is the cross-product bonus structure the operator has built around its lottery base. The Rule 4 deductions and non-runner rules are the standard fixed-odds bookmaker rules. The product is honest about its shape: a sportsbook added to a lottery brand, with ante-post on the top of the menu.

Worth it for the bettor whose ante-post interest is a small weekly flutter and who values the cross-product bonus structure. This brand is less a sports specialist and more a broad-market gaming site.

Betmaster

Betmaster is operated by BM Solutions GB Ltd, registered in Malta, with Gambling Commission account 65699, and the published sportsbook covers football, tennis and horse racing across the top-flight sports. The product is a standard fixed-odds book with the wider ante-post menu laid on top.

The ante-post position at Betmaster is competitive on horse racing and football, with the same Rule 4 deductions and non-runner rules as the rest of the standard fixed-odds market. It is a sportsbook first, with ante-post coverage on the top of the menu and a positioning that is more about the breadth of the menu than a specialism on any one sport.

Worth it for the bettor whose ante-post book is split across horse racing and football and who values the breadth of the menu. Compare this against a specialism-led book if your ante-post interest is restricted to a single sport.

10bet

10bet is published by Blue Star Planet Limited, with Gambling Commission licence 43173. The published sportsbook covers football, tennis and horse racing, and the in-product features are Cash out, Bet Builder and Live Streaming. The ante-post position is laid on top of the same three sports, with the wider ante-post menu thinner than at a specialism-led brand.

The product is a sportsbook with a defined feature set, ante-post on football, tennis and horse racing, and a brand-positioning built around in-product features rather than a specialism on any one sport. Rule 4 and non-runner rules are the standard fixed-odds bookmaker rules.

Worth it for the bettor who values the in-product features — cash out, bet builder, live streaming — over the breadth of the ante-post menu.

bet365

bet365 is held by Hillside (UK Sports) ENC against Commission account 55148, and the published in-product features are Bet Builder+ (combining markets from one event into a single bet, available pre-match and in-play), Super Boosts, Winnings Boosts on Bet Builders and selected singles, and daily Bet Boosts. The ante-post coverage on football and horse racing is among the deepest in the market.

The published product is honest about the shape: a sports-first book with a deep ante-post menu on football and horse racing, and a published feature set built around in-product price enhancements. Rule 4 and non-runner rules are the standard fixed-odds bookmaker rules.

Worth it for the bettor whose ante-post book is football-heavy and who wants the in-product price enhancements on the singles and the accumulators. The depth of the menu on ante-post means a serious ante-post account sits here by default.

Copybet

Copybet is operated by Copybet UK Limited against Gambling Commission account 53774, and the published in-product features are Best Odds Guaranteed all day, every day, on all UK and Irish racing, and first-past-the-post settlement on horse racing even where the winner is later disqualified. Both features apply to non-ante-post markets; ante-post is paid at the price at placement.

The ante-post position at Copybet is shaped by that exclusion: BOG and FPPT do not apply, and the ante-post menu is laid under the standard fixed-odds bookmaker rules. The brand’s distinctive feature is the copy-trading overlay, with published tipsters whose bets are copied automatically into the customer’s account. The ante-post menu is the standard bookmaker menu, with the copy-trading overlay sitting on top.

Worth it for the bettor who values the copy-trading overlay and whose ante-post interest is the standard bookmaker menu. Note that the best odds guarantee, a central Copybet feature, does not extend to these ante-post markets.

London Bet

London Bet is published by Thistle Bet Limited against Gambling Commission account 66162, and the published product is a casino-led book with a sportsbook added on the side. The ante-post position is shaped by that: horse racing and football carry ante-post markets, the wider ante-post menu is thinner than at a sports-first brand.

The published product is honest about the shape: a casino-led book with a sportsbook added, ante-post on the top of the sports menu, and a brand-positioning built around the casino product.

Worth it for the bettor whose ante-post interest is a small weekly flutter and who values the cross-product bonus structure associated with a casino-led brand.

BetMGM

BetMGM’s UK app is published by LeoVegas Gaming PLC against Gambling Commission account 39198, and the published sports welcome offer is four £10 free bets — two football accumulators of 4+ selections and two sports multiples of 2+ — for new customers who deposit £10 or more and place a sports bet within 7 days. The free bets are valid for 7 days with minimum odds and opt-in required. The published product is a casino-led book with a sportsbook added on the side, with ante-post on football and horse racing on the top of the sports menu.

The published product is honest about the shape: a casino-led book with a sportsbook added, ante-post on the top of the sports menu, and a brand-positioning built around the casino product with a sports welcome offer aimed at new customers.

Worth it for the bettor who is opening a new account and wants the published welcome offer on a sports bet. Less so than a sports-first brand for the bettor whose ante-post book is the reason for the account — the published welcome offer is a cross-product positioning, not an ante-post positioning.

Overview: what an ante-post bet really costs

The honest summary of an ante-post bet is the gap between the price you take and the price you would have taken the morning of the race. That gap is the premium for non-runner cover, expressed in the price rather than as a separate fee; it widens the further out the bet is, because the book is hedging more uncertainty. The wider price does not buy you insight — it buys you time, and the time costs the cover.

The five mechanics worth internalising before the first ante-post bet:

Price at placement. The price you take is the price you get, regardless of how the morning market has moved. BOG does not apply. The premium is the gap between the ante-post price and the morning price; it does not move with the horse’s form.

Non-runner rule. A non-runner voids the bet in the day-of market and loses the bet in the ante-post market. A non-runner in an ante-post single loses the stake; a non-runner in an ante-post accumulator continues on the remaining legs at original prices, so a treble becomes a double.

Void conditions. The race is abandoned, or the race is moved to a different track. Anything else — a horse taken out, a horse that finishes but is later disqualified, a horse that runs in a different race on the card — does not void the bet.

Place-only, conditional and forecast bets are not accepted on ante-post markets. Each-way is the closest the ante-post market gets to a place bet.

Settlement. Bets are settled at the price available when placed. A Rule 4 deduction applies where the published Rule 4 table says it does — a late withdrawal of a key runner at short odds — and the deduction is taken from the gross return before settlement.

The arithmetic of a single bet is mechanical. A £10 stake at decimal odds 6.00 (5/1 fractional) returns £60; the net profit is £50. For a combination bet the prices of the legs multiply into one decimal price; a £10 accumulator at decimal odds 36.00 returns £360, net profit £350. The price carries the margin, and the margin carries the bookmaker’s edge: an illustrative two-way market at 1.90 / 1.90 carries a 5% margin, and the published margin in a real ante-post market drifts wider the further out the bet is. That drift is the premium paid for non-runner cover, expressed in the price.

Frequently asked questions about ante-post betting

What is an ante post bet?

An ante-post bet is a bet placed before the final declarations, on a market that will be settled at the result of a future event. In horse racing the cutoff is most often the day before the race, with the price at placement the price at settlement. The defining rule is the non-runner rule: a horse that does not run in the ante-post market usually loses the bet, with the stake not returned, and a non-runner in an ante-post accumulator continues on the remaining legs at original prices.

What is ante post betting?

Ante-post betting is the practice of placing bets on future events well before they take place, with the price at placement locked in. It is most common on horse racing — Cheltenham, the Grand National, Royal Ascot — but the same market shape exists on football, tennis and other sports where a tournament or event is settled in the future. The wider the time gap, the wider the price, and the bigger the gap between the price you took and the morning-of price.

Does Rule 4 apply to ante post bets?

Rule 4 is a fixed-odds bookmaker rule, not an ante-post rule, and it applies where the published Rule 4 table says it does — typically when a key runner at short odds is withdrawn close to the off. The deduction is taken from the gross return before settlement. Ante-post markets settle at the price at placement, with the deduction applied to that price; the result is a reduced return rather than a voided bet. The published Rule 4 table is on each operator’s terms page, and the deduction depends on the price of the withdrawn runner.

How can it be checked that a bookmaker holds a Gambling Commission licence?

The Gambling Commission’s public register is the whole test. Search by business name, trading name, domain or account number; the categories on the register say what the licence covers. A remote general betting standard (real events) licence covers ante-post markets on real events. The register lists the licence holder separately from the trading name, so a brand whose trading name differs from its licensed company can be checked against either. A licence that does not appear on the register is not a licence, regardless of what the operator’s marketing says.

How is the return on a bet worked out from the stake and the odds?

Return = stake × decimal odds; net profit = stake × (decimal odds − 1). A £10 stake at decimal odds 6.00 returns £60; the net profit is £50. For a combination bet the prices of the legs multiply into one decimal price, so a £10 accumulator at decimal odds 36.00 returns £360. Fractional odds a/b convert to decimal as a÷b+1; 5/1 = 6.00, 11/4 = 3.75, evens = 2.00. The calculation is mechanical and the same for every price the operator publishes.

What is the bookmaker’s margin and how can it be seen in the odds?

The margin is the share of every unit staked that the book keeps on average across all outcomes of one market. For a two-way market with decimal odds 1.90 / 1.90 the implied probabilities sum to 1.0526, the payout share is 1/1.0526 ≈ 0.9500, and the margin is 1 − 0.9500 = 0.0500, or 5.0%. A 95% payout share and a 5% margin are the same market seen from two sides. The margin in a published ante-post market drifts wider the further out the bet is, because the book is hedging more uncertainty. The wider price does not buy you insight; it buys you the non-runner cover.

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